Sample of a Project Proposal

Final year project proposal

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

IPCC

Inter governmental panel on climate change

NAPA

National adaptional plan for action

UBOS

Uganda bureau of statistics

UMD

Uganda Meteorological Department

SRES

Special report on emission scenarios

GCM

Global climate models

FAO

Food and agriculture organization

DWD

Directorate of water development

CWR

Crop water requirement

ETO

Reference evapotranspiration rate

KC

Crop coefficient

ETC

Crop evapotranspiration rate

Tibow Al 00/UG/12263

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ABSTRACT Global climate change induced by increased greenhouse gas concentration has been widely accepted. Natural and human systems are expected to be exposed to direct effects of temperature and precipitation change. The agriculture sector is most vulnerable to climate change. Thus, climate change can have serious implications on the agro-based national economy of Uganda. Limited studies have been carried out to analyze the impacts of climate change in a national level. However, impacts of climate change in the basin level have not been quantified yet. Moreover, spatial and temporal variability of climate change might be hazardous in a local level. Considering these facts, this study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on crop water use and productivity in the Sezibwa river basin. To evaluate local effects of climate change, Statistical tools will be used in the trend analysis and scenario development of climatic variables. Assessment of crop water use and productivity in the basin will be carried out using (i) weather data and (ii) weather data modified by plausible future climate change through widely accepted CROPWAT computer model.

Keywords: Climate change, Water Scarcity, Agriculture, Evapotranspiration, CROPWAT, Sezibwa


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Table of Contents LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................... i ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................................. ii CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Back ground ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Problem statement ................................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Justification ............................................................................................................................................. 2 1.4 Objectives ............................................................................................................................................... 3 1.4.1 Main Objective..................................................................................................................................... 3 1.4.2 Specific Objectives .............................................................................................................................. 3 CHAPTER TWO .......................................................................................................................................... 4 2.0 Literature review ..................................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 General .................................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Global Climate Change ........................................................................................................................... 4 2.2.1 Global Temperature change ................................................................................................................. 5 2.2.2 Global Precipitation change ................................................................................................................. 5 2.3 Impacts on Agriculture and Food security; a global perspective ............................................................ 6 2.4 Projections of Future Climate Change .................................................................................................... 6 2.5. Creating Climate Change Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 7 2.6 Physical Impacts of Climate Change ...................................................................................................... 8 2.6.2 Crop water requirement (ETM)............................................................................................................. 9 2.6.3 Crop coefficient (KC) ........................................................................................................................... 9 Tibow Al 00/UG/12263

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2.6.4 Actual crop evapotranspiration (ETC) ................................................................................................ 10 2.7 Methods used to estimate evapotranspiration ....................................................................................... 11 2.8 Estimating Crop Water Use and Demand ............................................................................................. 11 2.9 Impacts on Crop Water Use and Productivity....................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................................... 13 3.0 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................... 13 3.1 Study Area ............................................................................................................................................ 13 3.2 Acquisition and analysis of climatic and river flow data of Sezibwa basin .......................................... 14 3.2.1 Data collection ................................................................................................................................... 14 3.1.2Data analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 15 3.3 Identification and analysis of different soil types and land use within the catchment by means soil sampling and maps ...................................................................................................................................... 15 3.3.1 Development of Maps ........................................................................................................................ 15 3.3.2Soil sampling and analysis .................................................................................................................. 16 3.4 Determination of relative crop evapotranspiration rates in various climate variability and climate change scenarios in the sezibwa River basin for the present and future (2050) projection. ....................... 16 3.5 Quantifying the impacts of climate change on crop yields in different climate change scenarios and carrying out a water balance analysis to compare the present and future demand with the available water. .................................................................................................................................................................... 17 3.5.1 Yield reduction................................................................................................................................... 17 3.5.1 Water balance analysis ....................................................................................................................... 17 3.6 Quantifying other types (domestic, livestock, industrial) of water demand within the catchment for the present and future (2050)projection ...................................................................................................... 18 3.6.1 Livestock Water Requirements .......................................................................................................... 18 3.6.2 Domestic Water Requirements .......................................................................................................... 19 3.6.3 Industrial Water Requirements .......................................................................................................... 20 Tibow Al 00/UG/12263

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LIST OF FIGURES

Fig:2. 1: Average 21 century global temperature increase projected by several ............................ 5 Fig:2. 2: Range of percentage change in crop yield (IPCC, 1997) ................................................. 6 Fig:2. 3 Reference evapotranspiration (source: Allen et al.,1998) ................................................. 8 Fig: 2. 4: Crop water requirement ................................................................................................... 9 Fig: 2. 5: The crop coefficient....................................................................................................... 10 Fig: 2. 6: Actual evapotranspiration.............................................................................................. 10 Fig: 3 1: A map of the approximate study area boundary of river sezibwa catchment ................ 13

LIST OF TABLES

Table 3. 1: Type of data collected and the respective source ....................................................... 14 Table3. 2: Required climatic parameters used as inputs to CROPWAT ...................................... 16


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CHAPTER ONE 1.0 Introduction 1.1 Back ground Climate change is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It is a change in the average weather conditions or a change in the distribution of weather events with respect to an average. Globally, it is a known fact that climate change is the single greatest environmental threat to life on earth. It not only impacts on our environment physically and economically, it also affects us socially and culturally. There is need therefore to prioritize activities that respond to our urgent and immediate needs to adapt to climate change. Climate change is accelerated by the increase in green house gas concentration in the atmosphere with industrialized developed countries contributing 60% of the total global emissions. (IPCC, 2001)

Historical climate records show that Africa has already experienced a warming of 0.7ºC, with Global models predicting a further increase at a rate of 0.2- 0.5ºC per decade (IPCC, 2001).Over the past two decades climate change has increasingly become recognized as a serious threat to sustainable development, with current and projected impacts on areas such as environment, agriculture, energy, human health, food security, economic activity, natural resources and physical infrastructure.

In Uganda, there is already evidence of climate change as a result of global warming. According to National Adaptation Plan of Action 2007, the frequency of droughts has increased. For example, seven droughts were experienced between 1991 and 2007. One of the permanent examples of the effect of global warming is the gradual disappearances of tropical ice caps around Mt Kilimanjaro and Rwenzori (NAPA Uganda 2007).


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Faced with the problem of high population growth rates of 3.3% of which 73% are dependant on rain fed agriculture for their livelihood (UBOS, 2005), Uganda as a country is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change. And as the population increases, Uganda's previously cherished climate is drastically changing from the bimodal rainfall pattern. This has been attributed to environmental degradation coupled with global warming (UMD, 2008) making rainfall dependant agriculture unreliable. Thus, the impact that has been caused by climate change that is coupled with the current economic crisis, will lead to the reversal of the achievements made towards the Millennium Development Goals. Therefore, in order to fully adapt to the effects of climate change, there is thus an urgent need to determine the effects of climate change on crop water requirements and to predict the impact of future climate scenarios on crop production. 1.2 Problem statement Rapid

population

growth,

increased

urbanization

and

industrialization,

uncontrolled

environmental degradation and pollution are some of the challenges affecting the utilization of freshwater resources in Uganda today (Phillips P Lukwiya., 2009). These problems have further been aggravated by the gradual increase in the average temperature of the earth. Temperature and rainfall being decisive factors for production of agriculture in Uganda, the sudden change in these factors due to climate change has rendered rain fed agriculture unreliable thus aggravating problems of food security in the country. As a result, persistent food shortages, flooding and draughts are unacceptably high and periodic famine has become a common phenomenon in many parts of Uganda. 1.3 Justification The study will avail information on the impact of climate change on crop water requirements, the data obtained, will therefore be used to predict the impact of future climate scenarios on crop production.


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Also, food security with in river sezibwa catchment will be increased by the sustainable use of the catchment and the incorporation of adoptive strategies within farming methods to reduce the effects of climate change. The data obtained will also help the country develop a national climate change policy, climate change research agenda, district capacity building programmes and sensitization campaigns. 1.4 Objectives 1.4.1 Main Objective The main objective of the study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on crop water demand and productivity in river Sezibwa catchment. 1.4.2 Specific Objectives 

To obtain and analyze climatic data of river sezibwa basin in order to identify changes in the climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation and relative humidity)



To identify and analyze different soil types and land use within the catchment by means soil sampling and maps



To determine relative crop evapotranspiration in various climate variability and climate change scenarios in the sezibwa River basin for the present and future (2050)projection



Quantify other types ( domestic, livestock, industrial) of water demand

within the

catchment for the present and future (2050)projection 

To quantify the impacts of climate change on crop yield in different climate change scenarios and carry out a water balance analysis to compare the present and future demand with the available water.


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CHAPTER TWO 2.0 Literature review 2.1 General Weather is the fluctuating state of the atmosphere around the earth distinguished by temperature, wind, precipitation, clouds and other weather elements. They are part of the daily experience of human beings and are essential for health, food production and well-being. Climate refers to the average weather in terms of the mean and its variability over a certain time-span and a certain area; it varies from place to place depending upon latitude and other geographical factors. Statistically significant trends in the mean state of the climate or of its variability, typically persisting for decades or longer, are referred to as climate change (IPCC, 2001a). This chapter aims to briefly summarize the information on climate change and its impacts on the world and on Uganda in particular. Based on the available information, the knowledge gaps in this field in case of Uganda are pointed out. 2.2 Global Climate Change Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate. The Earth’s climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era; however th

the rate of global climate change during the 20 century was greater than before. For example, th

average global temperature increased by approximately 0.6±0.2º C during the 20 century, which was greater than in any other century in the last 1,000 years. The warming rate became even more pronounced during the second half of the last century, which was predominantly due to the increase in anthropogenic green house gas concentration in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2001b).


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2.2.1 Global Temperature change The observed global average surface temperature (the average of near surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature) records from 1861 to 2000 show that the earth’s temperature is increasing (See fig. below) and most of the warming occurred during the second half of the twentieth th

century, specially in two periods, 1910 to 1945 and 1976 to 2000. Over the 20 century the increase has been 0.6±0.2º C (IPCC, 2001b). Different models all predict a general increase in the surface temperature of the earth within the next decade as illustrated in the figure below

Fig:2. 1: Average 21 century global temperature increase projected by several

Source: National centre for atmospheric research and the United States national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change, 2000 2.2.2 Global Precipitation change Increasing temperatures tend to increase evaporation which leads to more precipitation (IPCC, 2007). As average global temperatures have risen, average global precipitation has also increased. Many climate models show that the timing of precipitation will change. And thus, most precipitation in the future will fall during a smaller number of storms that are heavier in intensity. This is because the elevated temperatures will provide more energy in the atmosphere


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for storm production. Whereas the intensity of precipitation will increase, the traditional rainfall patterns will be disrupted and as a result, longer rainless periods will be experienced. 2.3 Impacts on Agriculture and Food security; a global perspective The direct effect of climate change on agriculture will be through changes in factors such as temperature, precipitation, length of growing season, and timing of extreme or critical threshold events relative to crop development as well as through changes in atmospheric CO

2

concentration. Indirect effects will be detrimental changes in diseases, pests and weeds. Generally, middle to high latitudes may experience increase in productivity where as in the tropics and subtropics rain fed agriculture yields are likely to decrease (IPCC, 1997).

Fig:2. 2: Range of percentage change in crop yield (IPCC, 1997)

Considering that agriculture in the tropics is vulnerable to frequent floods and severe droughts, these two factors severely reduce agricultural production and could threaten food security of many developing countries. 2.4 Projections of Future Climate Change The future climate change largely depends on the existing and expected level of influencing factors of climate change, e.g. the level of green house gas emissions. Economic and technological development, policy intervention, industrial development, source of energy etc. are the major driving factors for future green house gas emission. Based on these factors, different Tibow Al 00/UG/12263

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scenarios have been developed to project future climate change. The estimated range of temperature changes in SRES scenarios from 1900 to 2100 is +1.4 to +5.8 ºC. The major changes expected in the future are as follows (IPCC, 2001a): 

Land areas warm faster than oceans and mid and high latitudes have a greater warming.



Globally averaged mean water vapour, evaporation and precipitation will increase Impact of climate change on crop water use and productivity



The intensity of rainfall events will increase.



Decrease in summer soil moisture in mid-continental areas due to the rise in temperature and potential evapotranspiration.



There will be more frequent extreme high temperatures and less frequent extreme low temperatures.



There will be enhanced inter-annual variability of northern summer monsoon precipitation.



The Northern Hemisphere snow cover and sea-ice extent will decrease due to a warmer climate.

2.5. Creating Climate Change Scenarios General Circulation Models (GCMs), analogue warm periods and incremental scenarios are the basis for creating climate change scenarios (Smith et al., 1997). GCMs are mathematical representation of many atmosphere, ocean and land surface processes based on the laws of physics. Such models consider a wide range of physical processes that characterize the climate system and have been used to examine the impact of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on global climate (Gates et al., 1990). Smith et al. (1997) stated that GCMs estimate changes for dozens of meteorological variables in regional climate in grid boxes that typically 3 or 4 degrees in latitude and as much as 10 degree in longitude. GCMs provide the best information as compared to analogue and incremental scenarios (Smith et al., 1997). However, one major disadvantage of GCMs is that they do not accurately represent current climate at a regional scale. In many cases, seasonal patterns of precipitation are misrepresented (Robock et al., 1993). Tibow Al 00/UG/12263

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According to Smith and Humle (1998) as cited in http://www.cics.uvic.ca,They have put forward a number of criteria which should be considered when selecting a GCM. They are,

Model vintage: This is related to the age of the GCM experiment. It is generally assumed that recent GCMs are more desirable than older ones since they often will model recent knowledge about climate system behavior and response. Model resolution: The finer spatial resolution GCMs represents more climate process dynamics than coarser resolution models. Model validity: It is assumed that if a GCM is better able to simulate the current climate of a particular region, then it will also yield a more accurate representation of the future regional climate. Representativeness of results: GCMs can display large differences in estimates of regional climate change. They should be representative of the potential range of future regional climate change. In this way a realistic range of possible impacts can be estimated. 2.6 Physical Impacts of Climate Change 2.6.1 Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) This is the evapotranspiration from a hypothetical grass reference surface, not short of water; with specific characteristics of uniform height, actively growing and completely shading the ground. The grass reference crop is assumed with a crop height of 0.12 m, a fixed surface resistance of 70 s/m and albedo of 0.23 (Doorenbos et al., 1984; Allen et al., 1998).

Fig:2. 3 Reference evapotranspiration (source: Allen et al.,1998)


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2.6.2 Crop water requirement (ETM) Crop water requirement is the depth of water needed to meet water loss through evapotranspiration of a disease-free crop, growing in large fields under non-restriction soil conditions including soil water and fertility and achieving full production potential under the given growing environment. The values for crop evapotranspiration and crop water requirements are identical for standard condition, crop water requirements refers to the amount of water that needs to be supplied, while crop evapotranspiration refers to the amount of water that is lost through evapotranspiration (Allen et al., 1998). Direct measurement of Crop water requirements and reference crop evapotranspiration from lysimeters is very difficult; it is time consuming and expensive. However, different estimation methods are developed for ETo, which can be related to ET by multiplying it to K , the crop c

c

coefficient. The crop coefficient mainly depends on the crop growth stages and type of crop (Dinpashoh, 2006) see figure 2.6. The crop coefficient, Kc, is basically the ratio of the crop water requirement (Etc) to the reference crop evapotranspiration ETo (Allen et al., 1998)

Fig: 2. 4: Crop water requirement

2.6.3 Crop coefficient (KC) Crop Coefficients (Kc) are crop specific evapotranspiration values generated by research used with reference evapotranspiration data to estimate the crop’s evapotranspiration requirement (ETc). ETc is calculated by multiplying the crop coefficient (Kc) by the reference evapotranspiration value (ETo). ETCROP = KC×ETO


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Fig: 2. 5: The crop coefficient

2.6.4 Actual crop evapotranspiration (ETC) Crop evapotranspiration under non-standard conditions is the evapotranspiration from crops grown under management and environmental conditions that differ from the standard conditions. When cultivating crops in fields, the real crop evapotranspiration may deviate from standard conditions due to non-optimal conditions such as the presence of pests and diseases, soil salinity, low soil fertility, water shortage or water logging. This may result in scanty plant growth, low plant density and may reduce the evapotranspiration rate below ETm (Allen et al., 1998). The ETc is calculated by using a water stress coefficient Ks and/or by adjusting Kc for all kinds of other stresses and environmental constraints on crop evapotranspiration (Allen et al., 1998);

Fig: 2. 6: Actual evapotranspiration

Water stress in the plant can be quantified by the rate of actual (adjusted) evapotranspiration (ETc) in relation to the rate of crop (maximum) evapotranspiration (ETm) under standard condition. When crop water requirements are fully met from available water supply then ETc = ETm; when water supply is insufficient, ETc < ETm. To evaluate the effect of plant water stress Tibow Al 00/UG/12263

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on yield decrease through the quantification of relative evapotranspiration (ETc /ETm), information on actual yield (Ya) in relation to maximum yield (Ym) is required. In addition, it is necessary to derive the relationship between relative yield decrease and relative evapotranspiration deficit given by the empirically-derived yield response factor Ky, to quantify the effect of water stress on crop yield (Doorenbos et al., 1986). The yield response factor (Ky) is a factor that describes the reduction in relative yield according to the reduction in ETc caused by soil water shortage. These values are crop specific and may vary over the growing season (Allen et al., 1998). 2.7 Methods used to estimate evapotranspiration A large number of more or less empirical methods have been developed over the last 50 years by numerous scientists and specialists worldwide to estimate evapotranspiration from different climatic variables. The four following methods are selected based on the type of climatic data available and on the accuracy required in determining the water needs. They are: • Blaney-Criddle, • Radiation, • Penman and • Pan Evaporation

1.1

2.8 Estimating Crop Water Use and Demand

There is a variety of programs dealing with computations of crop water requirements, mainly based on a reference evapotranspiration. These programs are either single purpose, to estimate crop water requirement (ETREF, CRIWAR, CRWTABLE) or embedded in scheduling programs (CROPWAT, IRSIS). These programs also form the basis for various other irrigation scheduling programs which are in use in various countries. FAO’s CROPWAT has the advantage of a wide dissemination, it is extensively tested and widely accepted and also requires less climatic data compared to other programmes (Lenselink et al., 1993).


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2.8 Impacts on Crop Water Use and Productivity Crop water requirements and water productivity in rain fed and irrigated agriculture are essential indicators for assessing effect of climate change on crop production. Weather variability and uneven distribution of rainfall strongly influence the crop yield. The impact of climate variation on crop yield has recently gained prominence due to the significant trend towards global warming and climate change (Lenselink et al., 1993). Rising global temperature may benefit some crops in some places around the world. At the same time, increase in temperature generates enormous disadvantages to other crops through increased evapotranspiration and thermal damage (Yeo, 1999). Rising temperature and decreasing precipitation may widen the gap between demand and supply of crop water, which could have a direct impact on the agricultural production. Warmer temperature increases the water holding capacity of the atmosphere (IPCC, 2001c) which generally results in an increased potential evapotranspiration, i.e. evaporative demands. However, the actual rate of evaporation is constrained by water availability. The amount of water stored in the soil influences directly the rate of actual evaporation, ground water recharge and the generation of runoff (IPCC, 2001c). The local effects of climate change on soil moisture will vary not only with the degree of climate change but also with soil characteristics. The lower the water holding capacity of the soil, the greater is the sensitivity to climate change (IPCC, 2001c). Increase of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and changes in associated climatic parameters will likely have a major influence on regional as well as international crop production (Abraha et al., 2006). The Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES-A1FI scenario, with its large increase in global temperatures, showed signs of the greatest decreases in cereal production both regionally and globally, especially by the 2080s (Parry et al., 2004).


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CHAPTER THREE 3.0 METHODOLOGY 3.1 Study Area The study will carried out in the catchment area of River Sezibwa located in the districts of Mukono and Kayunga in central Uganda. The catchment covers a total geographical area of approximately 175 sq km. The river is gauged at Sezibwa falls (0°35N, 32.87’E). And the elevation ranges from 1122 m to 1353 m (Nyenje and Okke, 2008). The catchment is characterized with temperatures ranging from 15.20C to 29.30C and a total rainfall amount of 1215mm distributed into two seasons. River Sezibwa collects its waters mainly from areas around Mabira forest and discharges into Lake Kyoga wetland.

Fig: 3 1: A map of the approximate study area boundary of river sezibwa catchment Tibow Al 00/UG/12263

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3.2 Acquisition and analysis of climatic and river flow data of Sezibwa basin 3.2.1 Data collection Meteorological and hydrological data available at the Uganda Metrological Department (Kampala) will be the major source of information in this study. Table 3. 1: Type of data collected and the respective source Data type Climatic

Source (Rainfall,

Sun Uganda Metrological Department (Kampala)

shine hours, Temperature, Relative humidity and Wind speed ) Maps

Catchment

Uganda Survey Department (Ministry of

area

Lands)

Land Use

National

Forestry

Authority,

Uganda

survey department(Ministry of lands) Soil type

Uganda Survey Department (ministry of lands)

Human, Crop and Livestock Uganda Bureau of Statistics, District Agricultural, Veterinary officers and Ministry of Agriculture Animal Husbandry and Fisheries And the districts of Mukono and Kayunga River flow data and water Directorate of Water Resources Management Entebbe consumption rates.


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1.1.2 Data analysis The climatic and river flow data obtained from several departments will be analyzed using statistical methods such as the ranking method, moving average, regression and excel to establish varying trends over the years 3.3 Identification and analysis of different soil types and land use within the catchment by means soil sampling and maps Soil and land use maps will be obtained from the department of survey and mapping, Ministry of lands. The different soil types within the catchment will be identified and their properties established using the FAO soil units. 3.3.1 Development of Maps Catchment area map Topographic maps will be obtained from Uganda Survey Entebbe, the catchment area map of river Sezibwa will be marked out and the area will calculated using the following procedure:1. The area that drains in river Sezibwa will be marked out from the existing maps following the heights of the contours marked on the map. 2. The total catchment area was calculated by adding up the squares and multiplying them with the scale of the maps. Land use map The land use map for the catchment will be marked out from the existing land use map of the entire region corresponding to the catchment area. The different types of land use will then be estimated and their percentages determined. Soil map The soil map will be marked out from the existing soil map of the entire region corresponding to the catchment area.


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3.3.2 Soil sampling and analysis Representative soil samples from the identified soil units will be collected and laboratory analyses carried out to identify, texture (using the hydrometer method), and soil fertility (to establish percentage of organic matter and cation exchange capacity). 3.4 Determination of relative crop evapotranspiration rates in various climate variability and climate change scenarios in the sezibwa River basin for the present and future (2050) projection. Existing climate change temperature and rainfall projections from literature will be used with the help of CROPWAT software to determine relative crop evapotranspiration rates for the various scenarios and projections. Required CROPWAT data Three main datasets will be used as inputs in the CROPWAT estimation: meteorology, crop and soil. Details of these datasets are tabulated below. Table3. 2: Required climatic parameters used as inputs to CROPWAT


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3.5 Quantifying the impacts of climate change on crop yields in different climate change scenarios and carrying out a water balance analysis to compare the present and future demand with the available water.

3.5.1 Yield reduction A deficiency in the full water requirement (water stress) leads to lower crop yields. The effect of this deficiency on the yield is estimated by relating the relative yield decrease to the relative evapotranspiration deficit through the yield response factor (Ky). A linear crop-water production function, developed by FAO (1979), will be used to predict the reduction of crop yield when crop stress is caused by shortage of soil water.

Where, Ya Actual yield, Ym Maximum/potential yield and K Yield response factor y

3.5.1 Water balance analysis The equation below will be used to carry out a water balance analysis to compare the present and future demand with the available water for each year. Water surplus (Ws) = Q – IR – Ln – Dn – In Q = River discharge (m3/year). IR = Irrigation water requirement (m3/year). Ln = Livestock water requirement (m3/year). Dn = Domestic water requirement (m3/year). In = Industrial water requirement (m3/year).


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3.6 Quantifying other types (domestic, livestock, industrial) of water demand within the catchment for the present and future (2050) projection 3.6.1 Livestock Water Requirements The livestock water demand will be calculated by following the procedure:1. The total number of livestock within the catchment will be obtained from the district veterinary officers and the ministry of agriculture animal husbandry and fisheries. 2. The total daily water consumption rates for the livestock will be obtained from the directorate of water development. 3. The present water consumption rates will be obtained by multiplying the number of livestock within the catchment and the water consumption rates

4. The future livestock water requirement for the next fifty years will then be obtained by multiplying the present water demand with the annual animal growth rate ( as obtained from the ministry of agriculture) using the equation below Ln = Li (1+r/100) n (DWD, 2000) Where; Ln is the future livestock water requirement in the nth year. Li is the present livestock water requirement. r is the annual animal growth rate


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3.6.2 Domestic Water Requirements The domestic water demand will be calculated by following the procedure stated below:a. The human population totals will be obtained from the Uganda national bureau of statistics. b. The total daily water consumption rates will be obtained from the directorate of water development. c. The present water consumption rates will be obtained by multiplying the total population within the catchment and the water consumption rates

d. The future domestic water requirement for the next fifty years will then be obtained by multiplying the present water demand with the annual animal growth rate ( as obtained from the ministry of agriculture) using the equation below Pn = Pi(1+r/100) n (DWD, 2000) Where; Pn is the future population in the nth year. Pi is the present population. r is the annual population growth rate. r is the annual population growth rate.


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3.6.3 Industrial Water Requirements The industrial water demand will be calculated by following the procedure stated below:1) The total number of industries within the catchment will be obtained from the district planning officers. 2) The water consumption rate for the industries will be obtained from the directorate of water development. 3) The present industrial water requirement will be obtained by multiplying the water consumption rates and the total number of industries. 4) The future industrial water requirement for the next fifty years was obtained by multiplying the present water demand with the industrial growth rate using the equation below In = Ii (1+r/100) n

(DWD, 2000)

Where; In is the future industrial water requirement in the nth year. Ii is the present industrial water requirement. r is the annual population growth rate.


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PROPOSED PROJECT TIMELINE ITEM ACTIVITY 1 PROPOSAL WRITING 2

PROPOSAL PRESENTATION

3

DATA COLLECTION

4

LAB EXPERIMENTS

5

DATA ANALYSIS

6

FINAL PRESENTATION

7

FINALREPORT WRITING

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APRIL

PROPOSED PROJECT BUDGET


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MAY


Items 1

2

3

4

Proposal writing i.

Printing

ii.

Binding

6

Quantity

Total cost (UGX)

1

15,000

Data collection (soil ,river flow, and climatic data) i.

Transport for field work ( soil sampling, data collection from districts)

ii.

Transport for data collection ( DWD, UBOS, Met Dep’t, Survey Dep’t)

iii.

Communication (air time)

iv.

Purchase of maps

200,000

Soil analysis tests i.

Texture ( soil science lab)

ii.

Fertility ( soil science lab)

GIS Maps i.

5

Unit cost

30,000

150,000

1

150,000

10,000

3

30,000

Catchment, Soil and Land use map

Final report i.

Printing

ii.

Binding

Miscellaneous Grand Total


30,000 455000

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REFERENCES 1. Abraha, M.G. and M.J. Savage (2006), Potential impacts of climate change on the grain yield of maize for the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, Journal of Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 115, 150-160. 2. Allen, R.G., L.S. Pereira, D. Raes, and M. Smith (1998), Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, Irrigation and Drainage paper 56 FAO of UN, Italy. 3. Carter, T.R., M.L. Parry, S. Nishioka, and H. Harasawa (2004), preliminary guidelines for assessing impacts of climate change, Environmental change unit, Oxford and Centre for global Environmental research, Tsukuba, pp. 28. 4. Dinpashoh, Y. (2006), Study of reference crop evapotranspiration in I.R. of Iran, Journal of Agriculture water management, 84, pp. 123-129 5. Directorate of water development (DWD).Water supply design manual (2000). Ministry of water, Lands and Environment. 6. Doorenbos, J., and A.H. Kassam (1986), Yield response to water, FAO irrigation and Drainage paper 33, FAO of UN, Rome, Italy, pp. 193.

7. Doorenbos, J., and W.O. Pruitt (1984), Crop water requirements: Guidelines for predicting crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 24, FAO of UN, Rome, Italy.

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