Steel Industry Update/271
February 2012
Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007
Tel: 212-962-2980
Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, December & Year-to-Date, 2011 Month of December 2011 2010 % Chg 8,250 7,329 12.6%
(000 net tons)
Raw Steel Production ...............
Year-to-Date 2011 2010 95,237 88,730
% C hg 7.3%
Capacity Utilization .................
75.2
68.4
--
74.4
70.4
--
Mill Shipments ..........................
8,086
7,111
13.7%
91,865
83,444
10.1%
Exports .....................................
1,201
928
29.4%
13,454
12,004
12.1%
Total Imports.............................
2,064
1,872
10.3%
28,515
23,929
19.2%
Finished Steel Imports ............
1,577
1,505
4.8%
21,835
18,857
15.8%
Apparent Steel Supply* .............
8,462
7,688
10.1%
100,246
90,297
11.0%
Imports as % of Supply *..........
18.6
19.6
--
21.8
20.9
--
Average Spot Price** ($/ton) ......
$793
$758
4.7%
$867
$705
23.0%
Scrap Price# ($/ton) ...................
$434
$354
22.6%
$437
$348
25.7%
Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker SteelBenchmarker
*Excl semi-finished imports
**Avg price of 3 carbon products
#shredded scrap
Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Steel Products, February & Year-to-Date, 2012 ($ per net ton)
Hot Rolled Band..…………..
Month of February 2012 2011 % Chg 735 845 -13.0%
Year-to-Date 2012 2011 % Chg 732 809 -9.5%
Cold Rolled Coil…......…….. Coil…......…….. Coiled Plate................…… Plate................…….. ..
830 934
926 968
-10.4% -3.5%
830 942
906 929
-8.4% 1.4%
Average Spot Price……....
$833
$913
-8.8%
$835
$881
-5.3%
#1 Heavy Melt……………... Melt……………... Shredded Scrap…………... #1 Busheling……………….
393 435 470
396 432 465
-0.8% 0.7% 1.1%
407 451 487
411 444 471
-1.0% 1.6% 3.4%
Sources: World Steel Dynamics, 2/12
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Steel Industry Update/271
Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, January & Year-to-Date, 2012 Month of January Year-to-Date (000 metric tons) Region 2012 2011 % Chg 2012 2011 European Union……. 13,920 14,744 -5.6% 13,920 14,744 Other Europe………. 3,384 3,040 11.3% 3,384 3,040
% C hg -5.6% 11.3%
C.I.S………………….
9,404
9,541
-1.4%
9,404
9,541
-1.4%
North America………
10,340
9,874
4.7%
10,340
9,874
4.7%
South America……...
3,798
3,746
1.4%
3,798
3,746
1.4%
Africa/Middle East.....
1,549
1,571
-1.4%
1,549
1,571
-1.4%
Asia…………………..
73 73,823
83,361
-11.4%
73,823
83,361
-11.4%
Oceania………...…...
458
733
-37.5%
458
733
-37.5%
Total…………………
116,675
126,609
-7.8%
116,675
126,609
-7.8%
China……………....... Japan….…………..…
52 52,072 8,631
59,871 9,655
-13.0% -10.6%
52,072 8,631
59,871 9,655
-13.0% -10.6%
United States………..
7,600
7,191
5.7%
7,600
7,191
5.7%
India(e)……………….
6,100
6,145
-0.7%
6,100
6,145
-0.7%
Russia…….…………
5,948
5,927
0.4%
5,948
5,927
0.4%
South Korea...…...….
5,120
5,664
-9.6%
5,120
5,664
-9.6%
Germany.…….……….
3,353
3,665
-8.5%
3,353
3,665
-8.5%
Turkey.……………….
3,135
2,741
14.4%
3,135
2,741
14.4%
Ukraine.….…………..
2,871
2,918
-1.6%
2,871
2,918
-1.6%
Brazil……..…………..
2,780
2,764
0.6%
2,780
2,764
0.6%
All Others…………....
19,065
20,068
-5.0%
19,065
20,068
-5.0%
Country
Source: World Steel Association, Association, 2/12; e=estimate
Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production, January 2012
Source: World Steel Association, 2/12; in million metric tons
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Steel Industry Update/271
Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization Ratio, January, 2012
Source: World Steel Association, 2/12
Table 4: World’s Top Steelmaking Countries, 2006-2011p Country China Japan US India Russia South Korea Germany Ukraine Brazil Turkey Italy Taiwan Mexico Others Total World
2006 419.1 116.2 98.6 49.5 70.8 48.5 47.2 40.9 30.9 23.3 31.6 20.0 16.4 234.2 1,247.2
2007 489.3 120.2 98.1 53.5 72.4 51.5 48.6 42.8 33.8 25.8 31.6 20.9 17.6 240.0 1,346.1
2008 500.3 118.7 91.4 57.8 68.5 53.6 45.8 37.3 33.7 26.8 30.6 19.9 17.2 225.6 1,327.2
2009 573.6 87.5 58.2 62.8 60.0 48.6 32.7 29.9 26.5 25.3 19.8 15.9 14.0 174.6 1,229.4
Source: WorldSteel.org, 2/7/12; in million tonnes; % Chg is 2011/2010
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2010 638.7 109.6 80.5 68.3 66.9 58.9 43.8 33.4 32.9 29.1 25.8 19.8 16.7 202.8 1,413.6
2011p 695.5 107.6 86.2 72.2 68.7 68.5 44.3 35.3 35.2 34.1 28.7 22.7 18.1 209.8 1,526.9
% Chg 8.9% -1.8% 7.1% 5.7% 2.7% 16.2% 1.0% 5.7% 6.8% 17.0% 11.3% 14.7% 8.6% 0.3% 6.8%
Steel Industry Update/271 Table 5: World Crude Steel Production, 2006-2011p (million tonnes)
Europe EU (27) CIS North America United States South America Africa Middle East Asia China Japan Australia/N Zealand World Total
2006 355.1 206.9 119.9 131.8 98.6 45.3 18.7 15.4 674.1 421.0 116.2 8.7 1,249.0
2007 365.0 210.2 124.2 132.6 98.1 48.2 18.7 16.5 757.3 489.7 120.2 8.8 1,347.0
2008 344.3 198.2 114.3 124.5 91.4 47.4 17.0 16.6 783.0 512.3 118.7 8.4 1,341.2
2009 266.1 139.4 97.6 82.6 58.2 37.8 15.3 17.7 810.4 577.1 87.5 6.0 1,235.8
2010 314.4 172.6 108.2 111.4 80.5 43.9 16.6 19.6 915.8 638.7 109.6 8.1 1,429.9
2011p 329.0 177.4 112.6 118.9 86.2 48.4 14.3 20.9 988.2 695.5 107.6 7.2 1,526.9
% Chg 4.6% 2.8% 4.0% 6.8% 7.1% 10.2% -13.8% 6.9% 7.9% 8.9% -1.8% -11.1% 6.8%
Source: World Steel Association, 2/12; % Chg is 2011/2010
Table 6: US Steel Imports by Country, December 2012 & Year-to-Date Country Japan EU Canada Brazil Korea Mexico Russia China Australia South Africa Indonesia Turkey Ukraine India Others Total
Dec ‘11 142 217 401 312 201 190 53 86 11 4 1 66 25 53 234 1,996
Dec ‘10 144 368 408 192 195 216 69 64 42 18 3 20 12 27 94 1,872
% Chg -1.3% -41.0% -1.7% 62.4% 2.9% -12.2% -23.3% 34.3% -73.8% -75.5% -127.2% 230.6% 111.2% 95.9% 148.5% 6.6%
YTD ‘11 1,986 4,207 6,030 3,109 2,836 2,891 1,376 1,238 814 135 51 717 358 798 1,901 28,447
YTD ‘10 1,482 4,305 6,643 995 2,041 2,822 1,375 861 559 121 32 582 130 776 1,205 23,929
% Chg 34.0% -2.3% -9.2% 212.4% 38.9% 2.4% 0.1% 43.8% 45.6% 11.9% 59.7% 23.2% 175.7% 2.8% 57.7% 18.9%
Source: Steel Guru, 2/1/12; in ‘000 tons
Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright © 2012 by Locker Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. permission. Locker Associates, Inc., Inc., 225 Broadway Suite Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.
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Steel Industry Update/271
Table 7: US Steel Exports by Country, 2010 & 2011 Country Canada Mexico EU Russia Turkey Brazil Venezuela Ecuador Argentina Colombia Trinidad and Tobago Peru Chile Dominican Republic Panama Others Total
2011 6,730,288 3,440,829 603,081 8,864 32,358 160,101 95,752 50,495 13,974 120,021 19,162 126,900 35,761 216,541 117,583 1,682,485 13,454,195
2010 6,630,872 2,605,787 472,299 10,558 21,700 157,587 68,182 62,167 16,187 110,723 16,845 96,410 40,909 277,572 99,262 1,316,772 12,003,832
% Chg 1.5% 32.0% 27.7% -16.0% 49.1% 1.6% 40.4% -18.8% -13.7% 8.4% 13.8% 31.6% -12.6% -22.0% 18.5% 27.8% 12.1
Source: Steel Guru, 2/14/12; in tons
Table 8: US Sales Volume by Top Seven Automakers, December & YTD 2011 Automaker General Motors Ford Toyota Chrysler Honda Nissan Hyundai/Kia Total Top 7
Dec ‘11 234.4 210.1 178.1 138.0 105.2 101.0 94.2 1,061.0
Dec ‘10 224.2 191.0 177.5 100.7 129.6 93.7 75.2 991.9
% Chg 4.5% 10.0% 0.4% 37.1% -18.8% 7.7% 25.1% 7.0%
2011 2,503.8 2,148.8 1,644.7 1,369.1 1,147.3 1,042.5 1,131.2 10,987.4
2010 2,215.2 1,935.5 1,763.6 1,085.2 1,230.5 908.6 894.5 10,033.1
% Chg 13.0% 11.0% -6.7% 26.2% -6.8% 14.7% 26.5% 9.5%
Source: American Metal Market, 1/6/12; in 000’s units
Table 9: NAFTA Automotive Production, 2008-2113p NAFTA Autos % Light Truck NAFTA Heavy Truck
2008 12,599 50.8% 218
2009 8,559 53.7% 135
Source: Metal Center News, December 2011; in 000’s units
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2010 11,905 57.3% 165
2011e 12,775 58.4% 249
2012p 13,414 59.1% 293
2013p 13991 59.4% 335
Steel Industry Update/271
Table 10: Outokumpu Financial Results, 2011 Sales EBITDA Operating profit Excluding non-recurring items Underlying operational result Profit before taxes Excluding non-recurring items Net profit for the period
FY ‘11 $5,009 80 -260 -109 -66 -253 -318 -$186
FY ‘10 $4,229 172 -83 -66 -91 -143 -135 -$ 1 24
% Chg 18.4% -53.5% 213.3% 65.2% -27.5% 76.9% 135.6% 50.0%
Stainless steel deliveries* Stainless steel base price ($EUR)
1,391 $1,181
1,315 $1,252
5.8% -5.7%
8,253
8,431
-2.1%
Personnel at the end of period
Source: SteelGuru, 2/2/12; in EUR million dollars; *steel deliveries in 000 tonnes
Table 11: ArcelorMittal Results, 2011 FY ‘11 $93,973 10,117 4,898 2,262 1 54 28 92 86 118
Sales EBITDA Operating Income Net income Basic EPS Own iron ore output Iron ore shipped Crude steel output Steel shipment EBITDA/tonne
FY ‘10 $78,025 8,525 3,605 2,916 2 49 25 91 85 100
% Chg 20.4% 18.7% 35.9% -22.4% -24.4% 10.6% 11.1% 1.4% 0.9% 18.0%
Source: SteelGuru, 2/2/12; in US$, except Basic EPS; steel/ore in million tonnes
Table 12: ArcelorMittal’s Flat Carbon Americas Results, 2011 Sales EBITDA Operating Income Crude Steel Production ('000 tonnes) Steel Shipments ('000 tonnes) Avg Steel Selling Price (US$/tonne) EBITDA/tonne (US$/tonne) Operating Income/tonne (US$/tonne)
Q4 '11 $5,030 237 1 6,009 5,458 $868 43 3
Source: SteelGuru, 2/9/12; in US$ unless noted
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Q3 '11 $5.499 420 193 5,866 5,708 $910 74 34
Q3 '10 $4,573 158 -67 5,636 5,432 $769 29 -12
FY '11 $21,035 2,109 1,198 24,215 22,249 $892 95 54
FY '10 $17,684 1,555 691 23,101 21,028 $781 74 33
Steel Industry Update/271
Exhibit 1: Automotive Materials Shipments, 2008-2025p
Source: Metal Center News, December 2011
Exhibit 2: Chinese Exports of Steel Mill Products by Partner, October 2011
Source: Metal Center News, January 2011
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Steel Industry Update/271
Imports: Country of Origin (000 net tons)
Canada……………………….. Mexico………………………… Other W. Hemisphere……….. European Union……………… Other Europe*……………….. Asia……………………………. Oceania………………………. Africa………………………….. Total Imports: Customs District Atlantic Coast………………… Gulf Coast/Mexican Border… Pacific Coast…………………. Gr Lakes/Canadian Border…. Off Shore…………………… S hore……………………… …
Month of December
Year-to-Date
2011 402 19 190 349 338 171 585 25 4 2,064
2010 408 216 212 368 103 495 50 19 1,872
% C hg -1.5% -12.0% 64.6% -8.2% 66.0% 18.2% -50.0% -78.9% 10.3%
2011 6,032 2,890 3,487 4,329 2,558 8,128 948 144 28,515
2010 6,643 2,822 1,277 4,305 2,154 5,940 659 129 23,929
% Chg -9.2% 2.4% 17 1 73.1% 0.6% 18 18.8% 36.8% 43.9% 11.6% 19.2%
196 955 387 515 11
238 789 302 532 11
-17.6% 21.0% 28.1% -3.2% 0.0%
3,070 12,850 5,028 7,374 193
2,971 8,423 4,413 7,920 202
3.3% 52.6% 13 13.9% -6.9% -4.5%
Source: AISI; *includes Russia
Update #271 -8-
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