Week 1 Quiz

8/8/2017

Coursera | Online Courses From Top Universities. Join for Free | Coursera

Newsvendor and Forecasting Quiz Quiz, 10 questions

1 point

1. This question relates to concepts covered in Lectures 1 & 2. You can use any of the excel les posted to work through the question. Which of the following statements is a true statement about the Newsvendor model? In the Newsvendor model, the ordering decision is made before seeing the customer demand. The Newsvendor model can be only applied to vendors who sell newspapers or magazines. The Newsvendor model can be used only if unsold units cannot be salvaged. In the Newsvendor model, the decision-maker who decides how much to order, always knows the exact quantity of demand that will happen.

1 point

2.

https://www.coursera.org/learn/wharton-operations-analytics/exam/vRSgo/newsvendor-and-forecasting-quiz

1/9

8/8/2017


This question relates to concepts covered in Lectures 1 & 2.

Newsvendor and Forecasting Quiz

Quiz, 10 questions You can use any of the excel les posted to work through the question.

Demand at a store can be modeled by a random variable which takes the following values across four dierent scenarios that occur with following probabilities. Scenario Low: D1 = 10 with probability p_1=0.1 Scenario Medium 1: D2 = 30 with probability p_2=0.4 Scenario Medium 2: D3 = 60 with probability p_3=0.4 Scenario High: D4 = 90 with probability p_4=0.1 What is the mean of this demand distribution?

10 46 90 30 60 52.18

1 point

3. This question relates to concepts covered in Lectures 1 & 2. You can use any of the excel les posted to work through the question. Consider the demand at a store given by the data in the previous question, i.e., the demand at a store that can be modeled by a random variable with values and corresponding probabilities shown in Q2. Which of the following statements about the standard deviation of the demand distribution is true? The standard deviation is greater than or equal to 30 but less than 40. https://www.coursera.org/learn/wharton-operations-analytics/exam/vRSgo/newsvendor-and-forecasting-quiz

2/9

8/8/2017


standard deviation cannot be calculated for this data. Newsvendor andThe Forecasting Quiz Quiz, 10 questions

The standard deviation is greater than or equal to 10 but less than 20. The standard deviation is greater than or equal to 20 but less than 30. The standard deviation is greater than or equal to 0 but less than 10.

1 point

4. This question relates to concepts covered in Lectures 1 & 2. You can use any of the excel les posted to work through the question. Suppose we have a data set containing n=100 data points with the following descriptive statistics: mean = 80, and standard deviation = 18. We believe that this data sample comes from a normal distribution. Which of the following choices would you use for forecasting or predicting future demand values? Mean= 81.8 and standard deviation= 18. Mean= 88 and standard deviation= 27. Mean= 80 and standard deviation= 19.8. Mean= 81.8 and standard deviation=19.8. Mean= 80 and standard deviation= 18. Mean=88 and standard deviation= 19.8.

1 point

5.


3/9

8/8/2017


Using DemandData.xlsx le on the course website, and using the “Moving averages Newsvendor and Forecasting Quiz the moving averages for periods 81 through of 13” method, i.e., MA (13), calculate Quiz, 10 questions 100. In particular, start with forecast for period 81 using data from the previous 13 periods, i.e., from periods 68 through 80. Continue this process till you generate forecast for period 100. Now calculate errors, the dierences between your forecasts and the data. What is the Mean Absolute Deviation of these errors? Choose the closest numerical answer. 34.33 8.46 17.51 7.30 15.00 9.17

1 point

6. The number of customer requests for car rentals recorded on each day at a Philly Cars rental location is as follows:

Day

Number of Car Rental Requests

Monday

20

Tuesday

30

Wednesday

30

Thursday

40

Friday

60

Start with Wednesday forecast using two-day moving averages MA(2). Using the errors between forecasted and actual values for Wednesday through Friday, calculate MAPE. Choose the closest answer from the variants below. 43.6% 21.3% https://www.coursera.org/learn/wharton-operations-analytics/exam/vRSgo/newsvendor-and-forecasting-quiz

4/9

8/8/2017


Newsvendor and15.8% Forecasting Quiz Quiz, 10 questions

38.1% 9.3% 27.8%

1 point

7. This question relates to concepts covered in Sessions 3 and 4. You can use any of the excel les posted online to work through the Quiz. Mr. Cal Coolator uses a trend line forecasting model to forecast the daily demand for 1-quart water bottles at a convenience store based on the average temperature recorded outside during the day. The demand line is given by Y=36+4.3*X where Y = daily number of 1-quart water bottles demanded, and X = ambient temperature measured in degrees Fahrenheit. What is the demand forecast for 1-quart water bottles on a day when the average temperature is 70 degrees Fahrenheit? 407 395 337 380 371 412 353


5/9

8/8/2017


1 Newsvendorpoint and Forecasting Quiz Quiz, 10 questions

8. This question relates to concepts covered in Sessions 3 and 4. You can use any of the excel les posted online to work through the Quiz. Suppose you are a manager at a ski resort in Utah. The ski resort collects and keeps data on the demand for ski rentals over the past several seasons. Your assistant observes that the demand has a day-of-the-week eect (i.e., demand over a week is highly seasonal or cyclic). He calculates the seasonality factors for all 7 days of the week. The seasonality factors for Monday through Saturday are 0.8, 0.5, 0.4, 0.8, 1.7 and 1.8 respectively. What is the estimate of the seasonality factor for Sunday? 0.8 0.9 0.4 1.8 1.0 1.7 0.5

1 point

9.


6/9

8/8/2017


This question relates to concepts covered in Sessions 3 and 4.

Newsvendor and Forecasting Quiz

Quiz, 10 questions You can use any of the excel les posted online to work through the Quiz.

The Philadelphia Museum’s estimate of the number of visitors to its outdoor sculpture garden during a quarter (3-month period) shows both seasonality and increasing trend. The de-seasonalized trend line is D = 770 + 10*t, where t=1 for Jan 2015 (Winter), t=2 for April 2015 (Spring), t=3 for July 2015 (Summer), t=4 for October 2015 (Fall/Autumn), t=5 for January 2016 and so on. Suppose the seasonal factors are as follows:

Quarter

Factor (Index)

January (Winter)

0.8

April (Spring)

1.1

July (Summer)

1.4

October (Fall/Autumn)

0.7

What is the forecast of the number of visitors for Winter (January) 2017? (Hint: First use the trend line to calculate the de-seasonal forecast and then apply the correct seasonal factor for January 2017). 1176 957 688 917 1232 595

1 point https://www.coursera.org/learn/wharton-operations-analytics/exam/vRSgo/newsvendor-and-forecasting-quiz

7/9

8/8/2017


10.

Newsvendor Forecasting Quiz Thisand question relates to concepts covered in Sessions 3 and 4. Quiz, 10 questions

You can use any of the excel les posted online to work through the Quiz. Sew Good is a fashion apparel chain that sells a variety of cl othes in California. Below are the actual demands and the forecasts that Sew Good recorded for 20 of their clothing designs from the past season. In the following problem round all the ratio values to 2 decimal places. For example, use 0.97 instead of 0.9733 or 0.9689.

Actual Demand

Forecast

546

914

639

698

534

518

732

595

699

909

1019

1063

1174

1160

1092

1084

608

776

908

758

1162

938

1300

2108

739

870

941

1278

831

762

915

1270

682

524

799

708

1281

946

640

806 ’

“

”


8/9

8/8/2017


to release in the coming season is 1450. Sew Good follows the forecast

Newsvendor and Forecasting Quiz methodology we used in Session 4, and uses a normal distribution to forecast the Quiz, 10 questions

demand for “mood indigo” jeans, and ts a demand model by studying the deviations of actual demands from forecasts in the last season using A/F ratios. What value of the descriptive standard deviation should Sew Good use for tting the normal distribution? Please choose the closest number. 332 174 251 55 298 120

Upgrade to submit








9/9

Week 1 Quiz

Recommend Documents